AFAC releases Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter

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AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services, has released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter 2024.


The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter 2024 shows no increased risk of fire for any location in Australia for the outlook period. 

Across Australia, there is an increased likelihood of unusually high maximum temperatures for this time of year, with both maximum and minimum temperatures during June to August very likely to be above median across all states and territories.  

There is no strong signal towards wetter or drier than average rainfall for the more populated southern regions of the country, including southwest WA, southeast SA, eastern NSW, Victoria, and Tasmania, as well as broadly across the northern half of the country. Large parts of the southern interior have increased chances of above median rainfall, most notably across northeast SA, inland NSW and western WA. Some parts of southern Australia have a slightly increased chance of unusually high rainfall. 

Above average temperatures and areas of seasonally low rainfall will see a decline in soil moisture to August which may influence fire potential in the lead up to spring, but large parts of the country are still expected to be at near or above average soil moisture levels.  

Fire agencies across Australia will continue bushfire mitigation activities, including prescribed burns, where conditions allow. 

While all of Australia shows normal risk of fire during this outlook period, communities are encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert through winter months. Destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia. 

AFAC CEO Rob Webb said: ‘Even though there is no red on this outlook map, there may still be fire risk in the landscape.’ 

‘Widespread underlying dryness and warmer than usual conditions over the coming months may bring an earlier start to the bushfire season for many locations, and fire authorities will be preparing accordingly.’ 

'Though it’s cold in the south, winter is when fire dangers typically increase over the Top End.’ 

This Seasonal Outlook was developed by the Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, the NSW Rural Fire Service, ACT Emergency Services Agency, ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Country Fire Authority, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action Victoria, Tasmania Fire Service, SA Country Fire Service, Department of Fire and Emergency Services and Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions WA, Bushfires NT and AFAC.

**This is an AFAC media release


Submitted by CFA Media