CFA Chief Officer Steve Warrington has a brief message about our statewide preparations for the summer season.
As we still rug up with woollen beanies and warm thick coats to curb chilly winds, the bushfire threats of summer struggle to register.
However, the landscape is dry and we will most likely enter the bushfire season with a dry base in some parts of Victoria.
West, South and East Gippsland, East metro and Hume regions are experiencing high levels of landscape level dryness as we enter spring. If we don’t get good rain, the conditions will be a problem over summer.
The indications from the current climate outlooks produced by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate warmer and drier conditions, which will exacerbate the current state of dryness in spring and early summer.
Although forecasting bushfire seasonal activity this early has many variables still to play out, early indications suggest there is a moderate chance that Victoria will experience El Nino conditions in early summer coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During years with El Nino, with a positive IOD, rainfall has been below average and temperature has been above average during the bushfire season.
Regionally the West, South and East Gippsland, East metro and Hume regions are most likely to experience an above average bushfire season.
Our fire managers and fire behaviour analysts will be closely monitoring landscape dryness over coming months, which will be an important factor when considering upgrading or downgrading risk messaging depending on rainfall.
For this reason, I encourage brigades to be prepared and alert. As early as September landscape conditions may become susceptible to sources of ignitions, with the broader Gippsland region at risk of campaign fires.
I encourage you to consider that pre-season preparedness activity will commence earlier than usual and the planned burn season is likely to commence earlier than usual, with heightened risks in drier conditions.
Over coming months we’ll be formally engaging with regions, districts and brigades, but it is important we all start to focus now on preparing for the season ahead.
We need to be best prepared to safely protect the community, and each other.
Although the pending state election will generate plenty of white noise in relation to fire services and CFA, everyone has to be on their game this fire season. Communities across Victoria rely on us to protect life and property.
That's my focus and I know it is yours.