Victoria can expect an earlier fire season in spring due to below average rainfall being forecast across the state, meaning the potential for a continuation of the drying trend, despite entering the cooler season and lower-risk period for bushfires over winter.
The forecast for winter suggests it may be warmer and dryer than average which may lead to an earlier than normal fire danger season. This includes South-West, Central and West Gippsland regions which remain unusually dry due an unusually warm and dry April, and limited rainfall throughout autumn.
Emergency services are continuing to monitor conditions for changes in fire risk, particular throughout these regions.
Victorians should also remain vigilant that the winter season can bring significant storms and wind gusts, and it is important to be prepared for all types of potential emergencies.
Preparedness activities including statewide briefings for the emergency management sector to ensure that incident management personnel are adequately prepared to mitigate emerging risks and respond to any emergency scenario.
Victorians are encouraged to take this time to prepare their properties ahead of the spring and summer seasons, and review and practise their fire safety plan.
The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter is developed by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council and supported by the Bureau of Meteorology along with state and territory fire and land managers.
It’s important for communities to understand their local risks. Keep up to date with the Fire Danger Ratings on the VicEmergency app, VicEmergency website and tune in to emergency broadcasters such as ABC Radio.
Quotes attributable to Emergency Management Commissioner, Tim Wiebusch ESM
'There is no better time to review your fire safety plan, download the VicEmergency app and create a watch zone, and know who your local emergency broadcaster is.’
‘Emergency services and volunteers remain dedicated to keeping Victorian communities safe and are preparing for the potential of an early bushfire season this year.’
Quotes attributable to Acting Country Fire Authority Chief Officer Garry Cook AFSM
“Parts of Victoria remain unusually dry, and even in cooler conditions, fires can still start and spread if a burn-off gets out of control, particularly when strong winds are involved.”
“The impact of an escaped fire on local communities and emergency services can be significant, so it’s important people register their burn-offs, monitor weather conditions and never leave a fire unattended.”
“Make sure you have enough water and equipment on hand to keep your burn under control.”
Quotes attributable to Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMVic) Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman AFSM
“Unfortunately, this winter seasonal outlook shows a strong likelihood of continuing dry and warm conditions across Victoria heading into spring.”
“Winter is an important time for planning and preparing our fuel management activities. Managing vegetation and fire breaks and road maintenance helps to keep communities safer year-round.”
“With the support of communities and working with our emergency sector partners, we will continue to deliver our fuel management program where forest and weather conditions make it safe and suitable to do, and prepare for spring and a potential early start to the fire season.”
Attributable to Acting Fire Rescue Commissioner Joshua Fischer:
“With the release of AFAC’s Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Winter 2026, Victorians are reminded that while the bushfire risk is typically lower, winter is when we see more house fires—and tragically, more lives lost in preventable residential fires.
“Fire risk doesn’t stop when the weather cools—residential fires remain an ever-present risk, and the cooler months consistently see more fires in the home. That’s why it’s so important to be aware of the fire risks in your home.
“Colder weather brings added risks in our homes, making it critical that Victorians stay vigilant. Working smoke alarms and a practised home fire escape plan give you the best chance of getting out safely if a fire occurs.”
Quotes attributable to Victorian State Emergency Services Chief Officer Operations, Alistair Drayton AFSM
“Now is the time for communities to prepare their properties, review their emergency plans and make sure they know where to access timely and accurate information before and during emergencies. We know winter can also bring severe storms, damaging winds and flooding, so preparedness for all hazards remains critical.”
“VICSES is working closely with our emergency management partners to monitor conditions and ensure we are ready to respond to any emergency scenario across the state.”
MEDIA CONTACT:
Emergency Management Victoria via the State Control Centre: 1300 287 289 or sccvic.media@scc.vic.gov.au